Here’s a thing—even if these things that you mentioned wasn’t happening, it would have been extremely difficult for the Sensex to cross the 40,000 mark in 2018. It would have gotten there by mid-2019.
Now, even that possibility is lost. I personally think, given the current situation, the 40,000 mark looks good for 2020.
The current scenario of the global stock market doesn’t look good. And it’s going to take quite some time to get back on track. Plus by “scams in India” if you mean the whole scenario about Nirav Modi, I don’t think that individually has the potential to impact the Indian Stock market by any big margin.
And when talking about Long Term Capital Gain (LTGC) tax, it has sent a shock-wave among all the investors. However, in the following months, once it is clear how to go about with this tax and keep the returns at optimal level, the stock market would recover from this event.
The major concern right now isn’t the events you mentioned – including the increase in interest rates in USA. Right now, a major concern is the looming shadow of global recession. Many experts believe, how the stock market is functioning at the moment, and when looking at the global economic pattern and trends, it all very much looks like how it was before the scarring recession of 2008.
If we do plunge into a recession, the stock market could experience its worst days. The 40,000 mark would look even more distant.