I don’t see India benefitting as much from the ongoing trade war between USA and China as Japan (and also EU). When it comes to technology in specific, Japan usually looks to be the next heir to China’s spot. If ever China slips from its top position in Asia, Japan will likely take over and NOT India. Frankly put, even with all the resources, India isn’t really ready to lead a global leader. The internal problems are just too big for the country to even take steps to replace China. Millions of people are dying of hunger, majority of population is under poverty line, income distribution is unfathomable, there’s an internal threat to the core definition of democracy and secularism—all these will ensure that even when the opportunities erupt in the ongoing USA and China tussle, India will fail to capitalize on it.
But that’s a whole different story. Even with pressure from the USA, China has well-placed mechanisms that would keep it at the very top as the leading economy in terms of manufacturing and technology. A few weeks back, President Donald Trump announced that he’s levying a tariff of up to 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. Now, he’s ready with another measure to choke the growing investment of Chinese companies in key technologies in the USA. The move will also prevent technology exports to China.
This could hit China and its ‘Made in China 2025’ plans in a big way. However, if the latest news is correct, they are ready to hit back the USA with their own tariffs.
Indeed, India can find a much-needed space to grow in the tech field. However, point to note is that it isn’t just China that the USA is aiming for. To “make America great again”, Donald Trump is basically shutting the national doors of globalization not just for China but also for other countries, including India. This was evident in the tariffs that it introduced on imports to India. So, I don’t think the current trade war between USA and China is good for anyone—not for India and not for the world.
