The chances of the BJP winning the Karnataka assembly polls are 70-30, below are the reasons:
1. Modi wave
Believe it or not, this is perhaps the biggest reason if the BJP wins in Karnataka. There is still Modi fever going on in the country and people are voting for him and not BJP.
2. Three way contest
BJP, Congress and JDS (Janta Dal Secular) three major political parties will be contesting against one another in the upcoming assembly polls and whenever three parties are in fray, the BJP always wins. Like they did in UP and Assam.
3. Anti-incumbency factor
There is an anti Incumbency sentiments among people regarding the current Government which will benefit the BJP for sure.
4. Switch over
The members of other parties like SM Krishna switched over to BJP and some other Congress and JDS members are also joining BJP which will help them.
Although people of Karnataka don't have much love for the local BJP but Narendra Modi is very popular among masses and Karnataka people will support him.