Who is going to win Madhya Pradesh assembly elections?

The result will be more like a sample mood of the whole nation. So, whichever party forms the government in the state will likely have an upper hand in the campaign to General Election 2019.

(Note: Sikkim assembly election may or may not happen before or after the national election. The dates aren’t set for the either. Both are scheduled for April/May 2019.)

Now, coming to the important part of your question: who will win the Madhya Pradesh assembly election?

(Courtesy: News State)

It’s very difficult to say. Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been the state’s CM for 3 consecutive terms. He’s battling anti-incumbency. The waves are evidently against him and his government. Be it in providing jobs to the youth to fuelling the urbanization work, his government has failed to keep up with its promises on many fronts. The lower and middle class is angry. In 2016, a farmer committed suicide every 8 hours. This figure alone highlights just how miserably Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government has failed.

BUT even with anti-incumbency, BJP still has a good chance to be in power in the state.

· One, because, historically, Congress has always had a weak representation in the Madhya Pradesh.

The last time it was in power was 1998-2003, when Digvijay Singh was the CM. Over the years, Digvijay Singh has lost his relevance in the politics, paralleling his image with the likes of Manishankar Aiyyar and Subramanian Swamy. Congress lacks strong and popular leaders in there. So, even when BJP is positioned weakly in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh assembly election, INC doesn’t seem to be getting any big benefit out of it.

· Two, even with failures on the national level, Narendra Modi still remains the most known face in Indian politics. He still enjoys a massive support of the upper, elite class—a class that has major societal influence. In addition, aside from him, BJP has many known faces, which are well capable to attract caste votes. So, Modi, even after 5 years, remains a force behind which BJP is winning (and losing) state elections.

So, it feels like a highly balanced election in Madhya Pradesh, with either party standing an equal chance to win.

But then again, the above election is a very broad generalization. A lot and a lot of factors will come to play in influencing the poll, right from caste and religion to politicians and twist-arm tactics.

If I were to guess, Congress might cling the victory. It might necessarily win the majority—but it stands to form the government with horse-trading. Incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is burdened with too many collective failures of 15 years.

UPDATE: As of writing this, the poll in MP is underway. It’s sad to hear so many updates on around 25 EVMs malfunctioning. It might certainly be a foul cry from Congress. But it’s definitely something that the Election Commission of India should pay heed to.