You can't predict which party will win 2019 election but at the present time India needs a strong leader who is focused, confident and passionate and in Indian politics the one leader who has all these qualities is none other than Honorable Prime minister of India, Narendra Damodardas Modi. He is one of the most popular Prime ministers of India and owing to him in my opinion BJP has keen chances of winning 2019 general election.
1. Starting from the North, BJP is very strong there and they had won with majority of votes and are power in Haryana, J&K, UP, UK. Although, in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, Congress is ruling but political experts say that in 2019 election, BJP will sweep 87 seats out of 118 seats there.
2. Coming to the east, there is also no surprise, BJP has government in two states of Bihar and Jarkhand and that too no alliance with any party. On one hand where Congress and Samajwadi party was making a strong alliance to defeat BJP, the other hand the mass popular leader Modi, single-handedly defeated the leaders of both parties, Rahul and Akhilesh.
3. In Western India, no single party can hold a candle to them, they are in power in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa, having more than 100+ seats. And in 2019, BJP is expected to sweep minimum 90+ seats.
4. In the heart of India, Central India, BJP is in power, too. Big states like Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh come under them and political experts say, BJP will get at least 30 seats here in 2019.
5. In the south of India, BJP is in comprising state. States like Andhra Pradesh, Telengana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Karnataka, together have 129 seats but BJP has not spread its saffron color yet. Though, they are gradually doing well in Karnataka and other states and may secure 50 seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in 2014 was only possible because of Narendra Damodardas Modi whose good oratory skill and big promises gave India new hopes. So, impressed by his ideas, speeches and plans of bringing ‘achhe din‘, Indians chose Modi as new the Prime Minister of India.
Since the BJP’s coming to power, India has gone through a delicate phase – and most of the promises made by Modi have taken place only in his speeches rather than in the real world. As the 2019 election approaches, all the parties will start brainwashing the voter’s mind by proclaiming their future plans. This time, however, it may not be easy for the BJP to win the hearts of the voters.
Scams And Leaks
Every newspaper, news magazine or news channel has been flooded with reports of scams and leaks taking place. Before coming to power, the BJP government had criticised the Congress and stated that the government is fully responsible for the scams and for leaks. Now when the power is in the BJP’s hands, why are scams and leaks still taking place?
From the breach of personal data of 130 million people using Aadhaar from government sites to the leak of the CBSE examination papers of classes 10 and 12 – the Modi government is failing to take strict action. Apart from that, the bank scams that crossed ₹54,318 crores also raised many questions on the working of the government. Moreover, it was also revealed that “Cambridge Analytica helped BJP win elections, including the mission +272 in the 2014 elections,” though it was all refuted by the BJP government.
Rise of Unemployment
Modi claimed that 7 million new jobs had been created in one year, but a report by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that unemployment is at its peak with 31 million people unemployed.
Between 2014 and 2015, the number of farmer suicides rose by 42%. The farmers organised the long march, held hunger strikes to tell the government that they are in a crisis, but the government continues to ignore the agrarian crisis.
The announcement made by PM Modi was one of the most groundbreaking changes in the Indian economy. The Indian PM banned the use of ₹500 and ₹1,000 currency notes in 2016, but the effect of demonetisation is still being felt in the economy. The move taken by the Modi was condemned by many economists. It also slowed down the entire economic growth in various sectors.
From 2014, something changed in India – and that is the way we see the colour saffron. Since the BJP came into power, the Bajrang Dal and other militant Hindutva groups have been showing their ‘patriotism’. As Indians, we all know the value of saffron, but now it’s as though you are directly supporting the right wing if you wear saffron. Under this saffron colour, many thugs crossed their limits and hurt the common man no matter which religion, caste or creed they belong to.
The BJP government seems to be the master of what is morally right and wrong. There are so many incidences which are extreme cases of moral policing.
The bypoll results in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar show that the people now want some action rather than just hearing the mention of ‘achhe din‘ in speeches. The Modi government should work hard if they want to win the heart of voters. They still have time, but will they keep the blame game aside and bring forth real development in India?
It’s quite strange that even after winning a clear majority in the last election, people are now questioning whether or not BJP will retain in the upcoming one. The anti-incumbency sentiment in the large section of the crowd is too much at the moment. This, again, is quite ironic given more than 90 percent of media is now spilling propagandas of the ruling party.
First to answer - will BJP retain? Yes, they can and they will, as a matter of fact. Majority of upper class and middle-upper class still sides with BJP! The remaining section of the society can create trouble for the BJP and RSS. But the large urban voters will eventually turn the wind in their side. So, yes, for another 5 years, we can see BJP form the government and rule the country.
Now to the second part of the question—can Narendra Modi remain PM? This is a toughie. Here’s a thing, even if BJP wins, it’s unlikely that they will win a clear majority. Meaning, while it would still remain the single largest party, it wouldn’t have the numbers of form a government alone. In this case, we would get to see a coalition government with BJP – like others and most of time – getting involved in candidates trading.
If a scene emerges when BJP has to depend on other parties to come in power, the future of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister would look uncertain. Because it’s no secret, BJP allies have had quite some problem with the ruling party and its leaders. Most notable is Shiv Sena. These allies can condition to support BJP if someone else gets selected for the PM role.
Of course, all these are purely hypothetical. How would things turn out in the general election 2019 is extremely difficult to foretell. Even when BJP is growing unpopular among the silent majority, they can still change the tide in their favor with alternate facts and Mr. Modi’s oratory skill!