Joe Biden will likely win.
But that said, it would be naive to say this confidently.
Remember what happened last time in 2016?
Too much confidence (and arrogance) in the Democrat’s side, as well as the left-leaning media houses, created an undermining picture of Donald Trump
. Result? Hilary lost.
Of course, we can get into the nitty-gritty of the vote shares and the role the Electoral College played. But the fact remains the same: Donald Trump pulled an unexpected victory.
So, when making any prediction of US President Election 2020, one must be extra cautious. It can go either way.
Plus, the ongoing events would play a big role in the result.
What started with the death of George Floyd
, and subsequent clashes between protesters and state, Black Lives Matter protest is at its peak at present. And this will majorly influence the US President Election 2020.
As we inch closer towards the voting day, the politics of polarization will get even more intense.
The country already seems to be massively divided. While the Black Lives Matter protests demand justice for a community, few can overlook the riots it has brought in numerous cities, vandalizing the shops and companies of regular individuals. [Who do you think these “regular individuals” will vote for? Democrats, who support these protests? Or Donald Trump who wants to disassemble these protesters?]
The American political ecosystem has gotten quite complex with high partisanship. It’s not easy to just pick sides. It’s not easy anymore to tell which is right and which is wrong. The objective of the protest that demands better positioning of the black community is right, but the chaos that has ensued due to the protest cannot be welcomed.
Then there’s pandemic and recession – and how well the Trump administration has handled them. A few segments of the voters will also vote on this.
Joe Bidden is positioned as someone who’s at the center of the aisle. This was supposed to be his appeal – and why Bernie Sanders wasn’t favored. But I don’t believe anyone will buy his ‘center’ or left-to-center image now. In fact, I don’t think people will much care about Bidden.
US President Election 2020 is all about Trump. Whether he will win or not. Whether people will vote for him or not.
Remember, if Bidden wins, it’s not that people voted for Biden. It’s that people didn’t vote for Trump.
In any case, again, making any confident prediction would be quite naive. There are just too many things happening in the USA
, which would make this election quite uncertain.
Let’s see what happens.