Though I am not a BJP fan but it’s very likely that BJP will still be in power in 2019 and Narendra Modi still the Prime Minister. Even after radical moves like Demonetization and hasty-push to GST, there’s very less anti-incumbency against the current administration.
Modi is still the most popular leader in the country right now touting a rather cult-like following. And there’s hardly anyone coming close to his stature and that is the biggest problem. The democracy strives only when opposition is strong. Its unfortunate that India’s opposition isn’t smart.
Rahul Gandhi is still trying to find his political identity, always a ***** of jokes (although his recent unmatched Twitter game has elevated him to new levels). Arvind Kejriwal seems too busy with New Delhi whose poor performance in General Election of 2014 has hopefully taught him a lessons. He’s still a popular figure but has lost his identity from the mainstream. Nitish Kumar was the closest competitor until he joined BJP. Lalu is old. Mamata Banerjee, although hopeful to be PM, is only good at the regional level.
But this is not to say that re-election of Modi and BJP is assured. At times like these, Media is playing a major role in swaying consensus; social media, in particular. Channels like The Republic and Zee News have been defiantly breaking all the journalistic ethos with their biased reporting in favor of the current government, Times Network is all after revenue with its multiple proxy channels. India Today, on many levels, has lost its credibility. NDTV, still as respected, is much less watched. Top journalists like Rajdeep Sardesai, Arnab Goswami, Barkha Dutt, Ravish Kumar, Rahul Kanwal, Sudhir Chaudhary have turned into celebrities, largely affecting voters’ opinions.
On the other hand, digital news platforms like The Quint, Scroll.in are all playing an equally important role that can make or break the deal for BJP and Modi in the run to General Election in 2019.
Yes, right now, the situation is favoring the ruling party, who is piggybacking on the sensitive and jingoist topics like Hindu-Muslim, Pakistan, Beef Ban, Army and Nationalism. But one wrong move and it could turn any day.