The chances of Rahul Gandhi being able to retain Amethi constituency in 2019 seem to be as improbable as his chances of becoming the Prime Minister in 2019. And I'm saying this even after knowing that Amethi has always been known for Congress's stronghold in the constituency.
(Courtesy: Outlook India)
Where there is Rahul Gandhi, there has to be some doubt, after all. And I have past figures to support my doubt.
Congress is ruling Amethi since 3 decades. The popularity of any leader of Congress (except that of Satish Sharma who lost it to BJP's Sanjay Singh in 1998) has always been quite unprecedented in Amethi, no matter how little or big they might have worked towards the development of the constituency.
Passing on all the legacy to her son Rahul, Sonia Gandhi gave up this constituency to him as well, the result being a noticeable downfall in the no. of seats won in the last Lok Sabha Elections. Rahul might have defeated BJP's Smriti Irani in the last elections, but the victory was not significant enough to boast of, when compared to the past Congress victories in Amethi.
Even in the 2017 Assembly Elections, BJP won 4 out of 5 assembly seats in Amethi, and the one it lost was not against Congress but Samajwadi Party. The statistics tell that even though slowly, BJP is winning more and more no. of seats every elections, diluting the effect of Congress in Amethi.
To add to this, and talking about the current state, BJP's Smriti Irani has left no stone upturned to ensure her victory over Rahul in Amethi this Lok Sabha Elections. Be it provocative and influential speeches
, regular visits, or the promise of 77 crore being sanctioned by the Central Government, Smriti Irani is doing whatever she could to win the constituency this time.
Although public is not very much impressed with BJP on the national level, its positive effect on Amethi is quite visible, as the BJP giants Yogi Adiyanath and Amit Shah have also started paying regular visits there.
Considering all this and the whole political game, I'd end with the sentence I started with: The chances of Rahul Gandhi retaining the constituency of Amethi are quite improbable.