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With different levels of a successful outcome, Iran has been pursuing its nuclear ambitions since at least 1957. Iran opted to build a nuclear arsenal in the last years of the 1980s after a bloody war with Iraq to secure its safety. As a result, Iran explored partnerships with Russia and China in the 1990s to fund its continued research into developing nuclear power. With the only condition being that it keep its nuclear centrifuge devices operational for nuclear power, Iran decided to end its nuclear weapons development in 2003–04 in response to growing global pressure and increasing scrutiny. Relationships among the US and Iran are still contentious nearly forty years since the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Violent warfare is still a possibility as Iran moves forward with its nuclear program and develops proxies across the Middle East.
The US would face serious financial, political, and strategic repercussions from an intensifying dispute with Iran. If the US and Iran go to war, Iran might try to close the Sea of Hormuz, which is the route by which 30% of the world's oil flows, driving up oil prices elsewhere. Additionally, the United States runs the risk of alienating its currently troubled allies: in June, NATO declined to cooperate with the US to ensure liberty of movement in the Channel of Hormuz. A conflict between the United States and Iran might lead to a worsening of indirect conflict in places like Yemen and Syria or a rise in Iranian missile attacks aimed at the 70,000 American soldiers stationed in the Middle East.
Under the leadership of Joe Biden, there has been a reduction in tensions between Iran and the US. Robert Malley was named by Biden as the new U.S. special envoy to Iran, and in April 2021, negotiations to bring both nations back into conformity with the nuclear agreement were held in Vienna. But neither party desired to be the one to start carrying out its end of the bargain. Soon after, Iran accelerated its uranium enrichment to 60%, nearer the threshold needed for a bomb, after accusing Israel of causing an explosion at its nuclear site in Natanz. Following Ebrahim Raisi's victory in the Iranian presidential vote and his more confrontational approach to discussions, the talks came to a standstill in June.
Mahsa Amini, 22, passed away on the 16th of September in 2022 due to damages he received while being held for allegedly disobeying Iran's rigid Islamic code of dress, which mandates that women wear headscarves. Historic-scale demonstrations followed her death, with women destroying head coverings to oppose the state's "morality police." Protests swiftly extended across the nation, entering prisons, schools, and athletic venues. Iranians residing overseas spearheaded these demonstrations globally. Throughout resistance, the Iranian dictatorship clamped down on the protestors, murdering at least 537 individuals, including children. An Iranian official suggested disbanding the "morality police" in December, but the government never approved the proposal. In the end, the killings of several people by the dictatorship led to the suppression of the demonstrations in early 2023.
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