Let’s make one thing very clear: GDP is a flawed way to measure a country’s economic development. India, and the world at large, needs a better parameter. Do you realize that India’s richest 1 percent holds 4-times more wealth than 953 million people?! GDP doesn’t underline this inequality and so many other economic problems. In fact, in comparison, GDP per capita is a much better measure. And when you undertake this metric, you will realize just how below India is in the global ranking.
In that context, whether India’s GDP is 3 percent of 8 percent, the reality on the ground could be a lot different. That said though, until we do adopt a better measure, we sure have to look at Gross Domestic Product at market value.
The Economic Survey 2020 predicted India’s economic growth for 2020-21 will be between 6 and 6.5 percent. For the current fiscal, much like what CSO said, even this survey projected the GDP growth of 5 percent, which is the lowest in 11 years.
Do I think we can achieve this? I hope so.
Do I think we will achieve this? We’ll have to wait and see.
It’s impossible to say whether or not India can reach this projected growth rate in the next financial year, which begins from April 1st, 2020.
With how the economic condition looks at present, it sure seems quite difficult. Moreover, what makes the situation even worse is that this government is hell-bent in refusing to accept that there is indeed something wrong with the Indian economy right now. Further, the ministers do not seem to be serious (and credible) enough to take our economy to the desired growth.
One says that India will become a $5 trillion economy by 2025, which is extremely difficult and requires a miraculous boost.
Another one says that a slowdown in the auto sector is because of millennials.
Another one, when asked how India is going to achieve its $5 trillion dream says “Don't get into the calculations that you see on television. If you look at a $5 trillion economy, the country will have to grow at 12%, today it's growing at 6%-7%, don't get into those maths. Maths never helped Einstein discover gravity.” (Source)
(Courtesy: The Economic Times)
One Minster of State in the Ministry of Finance and Corporate Affairs, instead of focusing on the budget and economy, threatens people in election campaigns, saying "desh ke gaddaron ko", goli maaro saalon ko".
Modi government doesn’t exactly have the right team to fix India’s economy.
And this is very, very critical in today’s time.
Nobel Laureate and Economist Abhijit Banerjee believes that India might be going through a recession. He said, “What I can say is that we could be in a recession. But, I don't know by how much. There is nothing in the data that suggests we could not be in a recession”.
Market pundits believe we’re nearing stagflation. Per the Economic Survey 2020, headline inflation rose from 3.3 percent in H1 of 2019-20 to 7.35 percent in December 201-20. The unemployment rate in the country is already high.
India is in a deep economic crisis.
And the government in power continues to lie, make foolish statements, and take no legible actions to correct the economy.
Even this Economic Survey 2020 doesn’t do much and has its own flaws. It says, “the year 2019 was a difficult year for the global economy”. In reality, even per Economist Abhijit Banerjee’s admission, there is no global slowdown. There were a few hiccups but no slowdown. Moreover, how does the global economy matters to the fact that Indians are now not buying underwear that’s how bad shape our economy is in?!
I genuinely hope this changes. There are many concrete measures that this government must take, right from increasing the corporate tax to making it easier for businesses AND from increasing infrastructural investments to focusing a lot on the informal sector.
But will these happen? It’s hard to say.
You won’t find this sorry state of the Indian economy in the Whatsapp University. You won’t hear about it in the propaganda news channel. But the fact is very loud and clear: These are difficult times for our economy. And the people responsible to steer the country in the right direction seems to be reluctant in taking serious and urgent measures.