Who is going to win UP in General Election 2019? - letsdiskuss
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Rahul Singh

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Who is going to win UP in General Election 2019?


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With 80 Lok Sabha seats at stake, Uttar Pradesh remains a focal point ahead of General Election 2019. It is also one of the most unpredictable states in the country, with all parties standing an equal chance to win the most seats.


Sure, BJP is in power. And it stands strong still even with the anti-incumbency burden. BUT if you look at the track record of how state and national elections have panned out in UP in the past 10-12 years, it's really difficult to predict which party will win the highest number of seats in UP.

In 2007, Mayawati made the biggest splash with an absolute majority. Votes from Vaishyas and Brahmins, unexpectedly, went to her. In 2009's Lok Sabha election, Congress flexed its muscle in the state, accruing votes from all sections of the voters. In 2012, UP voted for the 'young blood' Akhilesh Yadav with a decisive victory for his party in the Assembly election.

Until 2014, Uttar Pradesh was rather seen as a socialist state. And then Modi happened. And the state started shifting to the right-wing ideologue. 2017 Assembly Election and the entry of Yogi Adityanath further saffronized UP. And as it stands today, the state is a hotbed of right-wing propaganda and activities.

As is evident, the people of Uttar Pradesh never shied away from experimenting with their leaders. From the Behen-ji and Gandhi to Yadav and Yogi -- we have seen all kinds of politics in the state. Amid the change in its leaders, we also saw UP progress in its socio-culture preference. A state that once prioritized caste at the top now seems to have been focusing on development. A state that held liberal values close to itself now seems to be embracing Hindutva.

So, the past 10+ years have been quite eventful for UP. All these combine to make General Election 2019 quite unpredictable in the state.

SP, BSP, and RLD have formed a coalition in Uttar Pradesh. This can certainly consolidate voters in their favor. However, the recent comments from Samajwadi Party's Supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav can create a bit of problem for the party. He seems to be against the alliance with BSP. Also, he has openly admitted that he wants Modi to be PM again. This can swing SP supporters in favor of BJP.

Letsdiskuss(Courtesy: The Indian Express)

On the other hand, Congress has decided to go all alone in the state. It is contesting the election on all 80 seats. While this may not necessarily have been a great move, the entry of Priyanka Gandhi in active politics can be a complete game-changer for them. In fact, with how Congress has performed in the previous elections in different states and the addition of Priyanka on the forefront, Congress can very well win the majority in the state.

And then comes BJP, which is all Yogi and Modi faces. At the moment, with the failed outcome of demonetization out in the open and massive unemployment problem in the state, the ruling party is battling strong anti-incumbency. Sure, the current narrative of India vs. Pakistan (created by the sold-out media) can play in favor of BJP. The party can and will use the Indian army's bravery to fuel its own political agendas, which will further add to its appeal. And, yes, of course, there will also be lots of Ram Mandir, Hindutva propaganda, which will appeal the extreme right-wingers in mass.

However, when it comes to the groundwork, delivering on its promises and committing to economic growth, the Modi government falls short by a huge margin.

So, it significantly depends on what basis will the people in Uttar Pradesh vote in General Election 2019.

And this is where Election campaigns and media will come to play a very important role in creating the perception for the parties, in front of the voters.

So, as mentioned, predicting which party will win the highest number of seats in UP in General Election 2019 is quite difficult. We're still weeks away from the big day. And a lot can change in that course.

Personally, I believe, with momentum on its back, Congress might trade better than other parties.



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